Looking for a bottom to form and the market to attempt a rally 4-7 days after a low is put in. Percentage gain of 1.4-1.7% (his past statistical research showed that 1.39% was substantive) on increasing volume from the previous day. There's a quantitative (volume/% gain) and qualitative (lots of stocks participating--real oomph to the market). Believes that we got that yesterday.
I will say this....and I've said it before, GaryK has been the MOST consistently accurate market commentator. In fact, a couple of days ago when the action was really terrible he said, "I'm not really bearish." I'm happy to not be overly short, but my P&C puts were a disaster. (sigh).
I also want to note that I my stop loss was hit on EBS. For issues like this, I generally do not put in a stop loss, because I've noted in the past that the loss gets "mysteriously" hit and the stock goes up. Sure enough, my stop lost was hit--it was the bottom for the day and the stock moved upward. I'm not overly paranoid, but I do not believe that it is an accident.
Gary's discipline is to enter the market slowly. If it is a true follow through day, then there will be plenty of upside--you will not miss it. Otherwise, jumping full in and getting trapped can be expensive.
~~~~~~
PS--jobs number has come out, and it ain't good. Will be interesting to see market reaction. The futures did not like it.
9 comments:
OIL:
Oil overthrew the top of its immediate term running channel from Feb of this year.
Usually a sign of trend exhaustion
Shorting Oil again here at the high.
However the other way a trend can exhaust is a spike - so again keeping this position small.
However what is more interesting is:
If one puts the Continuous Oil contract on a Log Scale:
(1) The long term trend channel running from 2002 is also at the top of its channel with a slight overthrow - possible exhaustion...again
and...
(2) The secular long term trend which started in 1999 at $10 a barrel oil - also has price at the top of its 9 year channel...
Again, not to say that oil will fall - just that we have here 3 pieces of solid evidence towards at least some form of trend exhaustion...
nice
btw
What's up with Dennis Gartman lately... he seems to be just chasing things in a volatile market...
Told his minions to buy Gold at $910 and it then reversed on them...
Yesterday everyone was told to short at $875 -- ahead of a jobs report with Gold aleady taken down all week????
This move made no sense to me -
as the leading indications FCX and Splot Silver were all showing strength
so I went long Gold stocks overnight for a quick flip as we test $900...
nice
One last comment if I may:
T Boone...
We all know that he talks his book..
However, There is a major major contradiction in his actions the past months...
He is on the record as for peak oil, saying the price rise is all about demand/supply - and that there is no speculation.
So, why did he short oil and natgas at lower prices this spring ahead of driving season?? After all we are at peak oil - right???
He would never have shorted if he believed in supply/demand - as we were moving into the strongest seasonality.
He then contradicted himself by saying that he went short because
of falling US demand.
IMO the only reason he shorted was because he thought there was too much speculation at the time and that the price went too high - but wait - again - he says there is no speculation! Again a contradiction.
So why did he go long again?
Fundamentals are no better than when he shorted.
The only reason he went long again is probably because he probably got wind that some commericials/hedgers were in trouble and that there would be a big sqeeuze...
His actions don't show someone investing based on supply/demand peak oil - but simply as one speculation (where supposedly there is not speculation....)
It seems for the moment that there are 2 vested interests in power - battling now... one to keep prices high (we know who that is) - the others (probably the democrats and also some Central Banks now - since we are beginning to reach the 'tipping' point)
All IMHO of course....
Scaled in more short at $138... closing in on $140...
Selling out long oil stocks here which were a hedge agaist the spike...
Will add again to short if we hit $140+
If we close strong will hedge over the weekend.
Is war imminent?
Funny how those stories always come out AFTER a price rise...
But then again you never know...
Oddly Stratfor Intelligence has little to say on MidEast problems - in fact the sides seem to be talking...
Also pretty odd that Gold is capped at $900 with Oil spiking...
One wacky market...
Watched the spot oil all day - every tick down was followed by a tick up in USO
Interesting divergence between the US and Canada market
US oil stocks are flat
Canadian oil stocks are up 3%
It's really hard to believe that investors in that market would be buying an Oil stock at $140 oil.
One thing about this market seems to be that people are flagrantly shorting and going long things left on right on any movement....
No wonder the volatility...
Hedging for the weekend...
NG--very odd day. Something really feels amiss--more so than normal.
Leisa...
Yes, all week was odd
In fact the whole market felt really mechanical all week - as if some big hand was pushing things around - but not winning all the battles...
I guess up next will be Ibank earnings along with some kind of resolution (upside or downside) to the oil spike... (will watch the electronic market over the weekend to see how they game it for mondays open esp. since the day session went limit up)
Some say there is a dollar crisis unfolding... again odd that Gold closing right on $900.
BKX acting like burnt toast all week.
btw thanks for allowing me to use your blog for a springboard for my random thoughts - it can get boring during the 3 hours I put in each day... (at least you haven't banned me yet LOL)
Please enjoy the weekend... and maybe post some more furry photos?
nice
I appreciate your sharing your comments. I don't always respond, because I generally don't have much to offer. But I find your insights, well, insightful!
Re: Nice's insights, Leisa:
DITTO!
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