Monday, January 14, 2008

Some stuff to think about

I have a few things to share with you today. I mentioned earlier that I had bought some Omnicare ($22.23 basis). Here's a brief blurb from S&P:

"Omnicare, Inc, a geriatric pharmaceutical services company, provides pharmaceuticals and related ancillary pharmacy services to long-term healthcare institutions in the United States and Canada."
Looks like a pretty good business model, huh? Now let's look at their chart:



If you are familiar with the Acapulco cliff divers, then you will surely recognize the descent from $62 (not shown) down to $21.20. Today, Oppenheimer updgraded OCR. I generally put NO stock into analyst upgrades and downgrades. Jon Najarian on Fast Money stated that upgrades/downgrades are merely to encourage order flow. I'm fond of saying that analysts are generally the last to come to the party and the last to leave the party. Don't even get me going on price targets. I never pay attention to them.

I mentioned to you that I was doing some uber-nerd activities. Specifically, I was putting all the stock symbols by sector (from Metastock) into Stock Charts. My preferred method of buying a stock is when it is coming out of a malaise--OCR being one such stock. Of course, stocks in malaise, can act like people. Stocks get sick; then they can go comatose before expiring altogether. (Apologies to all with loved ones suffering from any malaise).

One thing interesting about my uber-nerd project is that I oftentimes discover stocks that I don't hear folks talking about but that are undergoing steady accumulation--under the radar. Take a look at this stock:

OMG made a new 52 week high today. I started the smallest of positions (100 shares @63.50). It closed today at $65.73. As a group, chemical stocks did quite well today. It's important to note that chemicals are cyclical. So in a slowing economy, a chemical company (outside of ag chemical) is not a safe harbor. But this stock has been strong in a sea of weakness. It's also worth noting that there has been consolidation talk for the group as a whole. When you hear "consolidation talk" think "speculation". Anyway, I started a small position--and I cannot claim that it was well researched 'beyond the chart.'

Here are the top performers in this sector--This type of information is why I've been doing the laborious activity of loading these symbols.
As you can see, compared to some of these other performers, OMG look weak. I'd like to mention a couple of things. First, I owned TNH when nobody was talking about it--at $19 and change. Second, I shorted MOS when I thought it was looking toppy around $60. I got out quickly! Lesson--take no stock advice from me! I say that somewhat jokingly. But, I'll take pride in my track record of finding undiscovered stocks (SEED being one in addition to TNH). I just find them slippery--eel like even--so I need to develop patience to hang onto some of these guys while waiting for others to discover 'my' gem.

I want to introduce you to CF Industries (CF)


Here's an S&P report blurb

"CF Industries Holdings, Inc. engages in the
manufacture and distribution of nitrogen and
phosphate fertilizer products in North
America. The company operates in two
segments, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Phosphate
Fertilizer."

As you know, this sector is HOT, HOT, HOT. I've no position, but you may want to watch it. On Fast Money, Najarian mentioned ANDE. Now ANDE had ben a Hx3 (Hot 3x) performer. You might want to take a look at them given the valuation.


No recommendations, but a few stocks that may not be on your radar screens.

For the record, today I took a bit of a beating on RTK (said no to merger, which I suspected; stock tanked); PRS (remind me never to follow columnist's advice--but it was MY purchase and MY mistake) . My account balance in my spec account is below $20K. Booh! Hooh!

Hope you are faring well in this market.

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